Economic Update 4/10

JUST 88,000 NEW JOBS?

In the wake of the Labor Department’s disappointing March employment report, puzzled analysts tried to figure out the reasons for such poor job growth. Did businesses fear the impact of the federal budget cuts in March and scale back hiring? Were there fewer food service, retail and temporary job openings? (More than 7% of Americans work in food service jobs, and temp work has made up a larger share of employment in recent years.) Was it seasonal, since hiring also declined in spring 2011 and spring 2012? Would the number later be revised upward? Whatever the cause(s), the message was troubling. The jobless rate dipped to 7.6%, but that was because of fewer jobseekers – the labor force participation rate was 63.3% in March, a 34-year low.1

ISM: BUSINESS ACTIVITY SLOWED IN MARCH

In another disconcerting development, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and service sector PMIs both retreated last month. ISM’s manufacturing PMI fell to 51.3 from the previous 54.2, while its non-manufacturing PMI dipped 1.6 points to 54.4. On the upside, the Commerce Department did note a 3.0% rise in factory orders in February.2,3

OIL & GOLD MOVE LOWER FOR THE WEEK

NYMEX crude settled at $92.70 a barrel Friday, representing a 4.7% five-day loss. COMEX gold gained 1.5% Friday to end the week at $1,575.90 an ounce but still slipped 1.2% last week.4

CAUTION ON WALL STREET

The jobs report and North Korea’s ongoing threats gave investors pause last week, and so the Dow (-0.09% to 14,565.25), NASDAQ (-1.95% to 3,203.86) and S&P 500 (-1.01% to 1,553.28) all lost ground. Still, it was only the second down week in the past seven for the Dow.5

THIS WEEK: Alcoa kicks off the Q1 earnings season after Monday’s closing bell, and Ben Bernanke speaks on stress testing banks Monday night. Nothing major is scheduled for Tuesday. Wednesday, the March 20 FOMC minutes will be made public and CarMax, Constellation Brands and Bed Bath & Beyond report earnings. Thursday brings the latest initial jobless claims report from the Labor Department plus earnings from Rite Aid, JB Hunt and Pier 1 Imports. Friday, March’s PPI and March retail sales data arrive, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan report earnings, the University of Michigan’s preliminary April consumer sentiment survey appears, and Ben Bernanke delivers an afternoon speech at the Fed’s development conference.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+11.15

+11.52

+3.10

+7.60

NASDAQ

+6.11

+4.00

+7.03

+13.16

S&P 500

+8.91

+11.10

+2.67

+7.67

REAL YIELD

4/5 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

-0.74%

-0.08%

1.18%

2.16%

 

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 4/5/135,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/06/business/economy/us-adds-only-88000-jobs-jobless-rate-falls-to-7-6.html [4/5/13]

2 – http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [4/3/13]

3 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/02/us-economy-factory-orders-idUSBRE9310HV20130402 [4/2/13]

4 – http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/42403/oil-drops-gold-rises-on-us-jobs-report-42403.html [4/5/13]

5 – http://www.cnbc.com/id/100619132 [4/5/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F5%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/5/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F5%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/5/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F5%2F12&x=0&y=0 [4/5/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F4%2F08&x=0&y=0 [4/5/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F4%2F08&x=0&y=0 [4/5/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F4%2F08&x=0&y=0 [4/5/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F4%2F03&x=0&y=0 [4/5/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F4%2F03&x=0&y=0 [4/5/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F4%2F03&x=0&y=0 [4/5/13]

7 – http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [4/5/13]

8 – http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/5/13]

 

 

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc, and does not necessarily represent the views of Albert Aizin, and The Retirement Group or FSC Financial Corp. This information should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named Representatives nor Broker/Dealer gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information or call 800-900-5867.


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