Weekly Economic Update 10-7-13

WALL STREET FEELS EFFECTS OF SHUTDOWN

Even with the federal government mostly out of commission last week and a debt ceiling battle brewing, stocks didn’t fall too far. The NASDAQ actually rose 0.69% in five trading days, marking its fifth straight weekly advance; the S&P 500 lost only 0.07%. The CBOE VIX, unsurprisingly, rose 9.25% last week to settle at 16.89 Friday. COMEX gold hit its lowest level since August on Tuesday, and the dollar touched a one-month low against the yen on Thursday. The week ended with no resolution to the budget impasse. Last week, International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde cautioned that U.S. GDP could slip below 2% this year if the debt ceiling is not raised.1,2

ADP REPORT GAINS GREATER SIGNIFICANCE

As the Labor Department’s September employment report didn’t come out last week, the ADP National Employment Report took center stage. ADP said private payrolls expanded by 166,000 jobs last month; economists polled by Reuters had forecast an increase of 180,000. ADP compiles its report off of available data, as opposed to the fresh data presented by the Labor Department on the first Friday of each month. The official September jobs report will likely appear on the Friday after the federal government reopens.3,4

MANUFACTURING EXPANDS IN SEPTEMBER

The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager index for the factory sector came in at a healthy 56.2 for September, up from 55.7 in August. The Institute’s non-manufacturing PMI fell 4.2 points in September to 54.4; even so, it showed the service sector growing for the 45th straight month.5

THIS WEEK: No major economic releases are scheduled for Monday. Quarterly results from Yum! Brands and Alcoa will kick off a new earnings season Tuesday. Wednesday offers earnings reports from Family Dollar and Costco, and the September 17-18 FOMC minutes. Thursday brings the latest initial jobless claims figures, plus a speech from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi at the Economic Club of New York. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase report earnings Friday, and the preliminary October consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan appears; the September PPI and September retail sales reports are also slated to be released.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+15.02

+11.03

+9.20

+5.75

NASDAQ

+26.11

+20.90

+19.11

+10.25

S&P 500

+18.53

+15.68

+10.76

+6.42

REAL YIELD

10/4 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.46%

-0.86%

2.18%

2.16%


Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/4/131,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – tinyurl.com/of5e7ad [10/4/13]

2 – marketwatch.com/story/the-debt-ceiling-issue-and-markets-in-6-charts-2013-10-04 [10/4/13]

3 – reuters.com/article/2013/10/02/us-usa-economy-employment-adp-idUSBRE9910IW20131002 [10/4/13]

4 – pbs.org/newshour/businessdesk/2013/10/did-we-really-add-166000-jobs.html [10/2/13]

5 – ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [10/3/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F4%2F12&x=0&y=0 [10/4/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F4%2F12&x=0&y=0 [10/4/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F4%2F12&x=0&y=0 [10/4/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F3%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/4/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F3%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/4/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F3%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/4/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F3%2F03&x=0&y=0 [10/4/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F3%2F03&x=0&y=0 [10/4/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F3%2F03&x=0&y=0 [10/4/13]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/4/13]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/4/13]

Albert Aizin is a Representative with FSC Securities and may be reached at http://www.theretirementgroup.com. 

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc, and does not necessarily represent the views of Albert Aizin and The Retirement Group or FSC Financial Corp. This information should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named Representatives nor Broker/Dealer gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information or call 800-900-5867.

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