Weekly Economic Update 11/11/13

SHUTDOWN DOESN’T DETER HIRING

The Labor Department’s delayed October employment report showed the economy adding 204,000 new jobs last month. Analysts polled by Reuters had only expected a gain of 125,000. The unemployment rate actually rose to 7.3%, as those analysts had predicted. This was a nice Friday surprise for Wall Street, and it also made investors wonder if the tapering of QE3 could come before the end of the year. A solid November employment report could offer further grounds for that move.1

FIRST Q3 GDP ESTIMATE TOPS EXPECTATIONS

In another nice surprise for Wall Street, the Bureau of Economic Analysis put third quarter growth at 2.8%, whereas economists surveyed by MarketWatch had projected a reading of 2.3%. In related news, a federal report showed factory orders up 1.7% in September, and the Institute for Supply Management’s service sector PMI rose a full point in October to 55.4.2,3

HOUSEHOLD INCOMES OUTPACE SPENDING

The September consumer spending report was a bit of a disappointment. Personal spending increased 0.2% (economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.3% rise) while personal incomes rose 0.5%, suggesting that households saved more and spent less of what they earned. November’s initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 72.0, down from the final October mark of 73.2.3

DOW CLOSES AT NEW PEAK

Rising 1.08% on the day and 0.94% on the week, the DJIA settled at a new all-time peak of 15,761.78 Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.51% across five days to settle at 1,770.61 at week’s end, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ lost 0.07% in the same stretch, closing Friday at 3,919.23. Incidentally, the S&P is now riding a 5-week win streak, its longest since mid-February.1,4

THIS WEEK: Earnings season is winding down, but it should still take center stage this week with light data coming out of Washington. Monday is Veterans Day, a federal holiday; bond markets are closed, but the stock market is open and NewsCorp, American Apparel, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Trend Micro will present Q3 results. Tuesday brings earnings from Dish Network, DR Horton, Dean Foods and Pandora. Wednesday offers Q3 results from Cisco and Macy’s. On Thursday, earnings reports from Wal-Mart, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, Williams Sonoma, Vodafone, Viacom and Agilent arrive along with new initial claims figures. Reports on October industrial output and September wholesale inventories appear Friday.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+20.28

+23.03

+15.25

+6.07

NASDAQ

+29.80

+35.35

+27.58

+9.89

S&P 500

+24.15

+28.54

+18.04

+6.81

REAL YIELD

11/8 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.59%

-0.85%

2.86%

2.10%

Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/8/135,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – tinyurl.com/kvl7fbr [11/8/13]

2 – usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/11/07/third-quarter-gdp-report/3452547/ [11/7/13]

3 – marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic [11/8/13]

4 – google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI&ei=oHF9Usj8IoOeiQLiKA [11/8/13]

5 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [11/8/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/8/13]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/8/13]

 

 

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